First round of Oscar betting

lakerfan · Feb 13, 2003

(All thegreek.com unless noted)

If you are looking for the strong short term play stick to the 1 unit bets It is very possible that all the 1/4 unit plays will lose, but they all have some value. I am posting what I am playing, but the LOTR editing bet is the strongest of the three 1/4 unit plays.

1 Unit Plays:

Cinematography - Far From Heaven +300
Cinematography - Road to Perdition +450

(don't let the favorite Chicago -300 scare you, it is far from what it should be priced at. 66% chance that one of the two films above wins the category)

1/4 Unit Plays:

Editing - LOTR: Two Towers +1100
Original Screenplay - Y Tu Mama Tambien +2000
Picture - Pianist +2400 (by buying at 4 with WSEX interactive)

SonofaGun · Feb 13, 2003

lakerfan, any thoughts on chris cooper winning the best supporting actor? I put a small chunk on that when it was -125 before the nominations came out. Now he's -250.

lakerfan · Feb 13, 2003

I wouldn't bet against him at the moment. Supporting cats are ones that can offer surprises, but Cooper is looking very strong. If I had him at -125 I would be very happy. -250 isn't a bad price, but still too early for me to personally bet.

lakerfan · Feb 13, 2003

ADDING

1 Unit Play:

Picture - Chicago -200 (Buying at 67 at WSEX)

Playing a little chalk here, but Chicago is a strong play at this price. The way I view it only three films have a shot: Chicago, The Hours, and Pianist. We have the long shot Pianist covered (it keeps building and is the kind of film that could surprise). The Hours will have to make some major moves to have any shot at it (don't see it happening for a number of reasons). Chicago is worth the price up to -250 at this point.

AC · Feb 13, 2003

AMPAS loves schmaltz. Connie Hall recently died and I KNOW they would love to honor him by giving him the Oscar for ROAD TO PERDITION. he was considered a very nice man, a real gentleman, so that won't hurt either.

that LOTR editing bet is a real solid play considering the payoff.

Cooper will probably win (I predicted this awhile ago) but I don't like the price.

AC